Tuesday, December 06, 2005

領匯窩輪成對沖基金工具

2005年12月5日

【明報專訊】歐洲大型對沖基金TCI在領匯(0823)上市後不久便毅然投下逾40億元的巨資,大舉從市場掃入接近3.75億個基金單位。很多人都在問﹕今次對沖基金來勢洶洶,究竟所為何事﹖這不但關係到領匯今後的投資價值,亦同時關係到很多民眾的日常生活,所以極之值得大家細想。
若要準確評估TCI的意圖,需要先掌握它的投資取態。

TCI依賴高回報賺錢

根據《華爾街日報》報道,這家對沖基金管轄的資產有30億美元(即234億港元,僅及領匯上周五總市值的83%)。另據公司發言人形容﹕「TCI的投資方法是尋找基本價值,希望可以在中長期得到絕對回報」。
TCI旗下的基金正式創立於2004年1月,但一年之後,便因為基金回報率高達43%,得到了對沖基金專業雜誌《EuroHedge》頒發最佳年度基金大獎。值得留意的一點是,TCI的主要賺錢方法是靠跟投資者分享基金回報。換言之,TCI是要靠爭取高回報來多賺的。

領匯孳息不足5厘 非基金目標

由於TCI手上的領匯,有多達98%是在領匯上市後從市場購入的,而在TCI上周四公布大幅增持之前的四個交易天,大部分交易時段的做價都是在12元左右,因此相信TCI目前手上所持有的領匯平均價會接近12元。雖然與上周五領匯的收市價13.2元比較,已有10%的升值,但這肯定不能滿足TCI的胃納,別忘記它們去年的回報率是43%。何?領匯如今只能為他們帶來帳面增值,最終還是要套現才能完事,因此幾可斷言TCI必有後著。

關鍵的問題是﹕TCI究竟看中了領匯什麼﹖答案一定不會是領匯的孳息率。因為如今領匯的孳息率已因股價大升而降至不足5厘,即僅僅高於理論上毫無風險的美國10年期債券。此外,若我們假設TCI如今管轄的總資產真的一如報章所言是30億美元,今次他們向領匯投下的40多億元便相等於其總資產的20%。若要旗下基金達至幾十個百分點的回報,這個20%部分當然不可以只提供4至5個百分點的回報,何況領匯第一次派息的日期是在明年8月。TCI又怎會呆等呢﹗

對於TCI的圖謀,市場上大體有如下的四種說法﹕

1) TCI旨在透過把領匯拆骨或重建,來彰顯其土地價值,然後套現﹔
2) TCI會聯同其他基金單位持有人迫使領匯管理層採取更進取的融資方法來增購商場,以提高領匯的收益﹔
3) TCI會要求領導層大幅加租或透過大削人手來增加基金回報。
透過改組領匯增值難度高
不過,上述三個推論既有弱點、也不能達至對沖基金謀求「大茶飯」的目的。首先, 領匯商場的地契至今仍然跟其毗鄰的公屋或居屋地契連在一起,若要分契,公屋部分要房委會同意,而居屋部分亦要全體居屋業主同意,所以根本不可能在短時間內實現。
第二,領匯不是一家普通公司,它受著證監會的房屋地產投資信託基金守則限制,其借貸比率是不能高於其資產總值的45%,如今領匯的借貸比率已達到35.6%。何?利率正在上升,透過借貸購入更多商場來增加領匯的租金收入,其效果不會顯著。
第三, 若要透過更換管理人來改變經營模式,便要75%單位持有人的支持才可落實。此外,香港地少,不少領匯商場附近便有其他商場在競爭,所以要在短時間內大幅加租,真是談可容易。

星領匯窩輪量驚人 勢影響正股價

既然正常的做生意手法無法解釋TCI如今展現的「既急且勇」掃貨方法, 較合理的推論是,他們可能正試圖透過一些財技來發大財。 在這個層次上,在新加坡上市的領匯窩輪便很值得大家注意。
事實上,如今已有3隻認購(call)領匯窩輪在當地買賣。我們從新加坡交易所的官方網站發現,這3隻窩輪,每隻均涉及高達1億個領匯基金單位。更教人驚訝的是,另有3隻新的領匯窩輪(全屬認購窩)會在明天登場,每隻也涉及1億個單位(見上表)。換言之,本周二之後,便有多達6億個領匯基金單位可以在新加坡買賣,這個數量已等於香港領匯總發行量的28%,比例之大勢必倒過來影響領匯單位價格的走勢,因為上述窩輪發行商一如其他窩輪的發行商,是要不停地按照市價來調節他們手上的領匯持貨量,以應付窩輪持有人在到期日會行使認購領匯。具體而言,當領匯價格標升,發行商便要按照一個電腦程式增購領匯,反之,若然領匯價格下跌,他們便要減持手上的領匯,以免到期日若然沒有人換領,會出現巨額虧損。

TCI幾日間可賺8億元

明白上述機制後,大家便不難想像到,若然TCI在領匯上市之前,已率先大量地從發行商購入在新加坡買賣的3隻領匯窩輪,接著又在香港大量購入領匯單位,令其股價標升,窩輪發行商便要在港追貨,令股價再進一步上升。這樣一來,TCI手上的貨及其窩輪便會兩頭賺。這或許解釋了為何TCI近日要如此急於在港掃入領匯。
根據新加坡交易所的資料,單是3隻已上市的領匯窩輪,其上周五的總市值已較發行時的總值標升了1.368億坡元,即相等於6.27億港元。假若TCI真的持有了這3隻窩輪的半數,帳面上便錄得了3億以上的增值,連同他們在港掃入的領匯所帶來的4億多帳面增值,TCI的資產在幾天內已上升了7億至8億元。 筆者如今還未想通的是,TCI可以如何套現脫身罷了。

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